Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.1%). Look for Jarnkrok on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Jarnkrok shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Jarnkrok 48.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Jarnkrok leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 57.6%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 60.8%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 62.5%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
13
(17 meetings)
4
13
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Jarnkrok
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
0
7
Nelson
Jarnkrok
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
0
5
Nelson
Jarnkrok
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Jarnkrok
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.3% (3,354)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.9% (258)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
40.5% (640)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarnkrok shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,982).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.6% (2,261)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
45.3% (1,991)
By Period
Nelson
Jarnkrok
P1
48.7%
47.7%
P2
48.5%
48.0%
P3
47.7%
48.8%
OT
45.6%
40.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |