Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Jarnkrok shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Jarnkrok 47.4% (+2.6%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.5%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Nelson
Jarnkrok
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
41.1% (56)
+5.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
50.0% (12)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.0% (26)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Jarnkrok has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarnkrok shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Jarnkrok is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Home
48.9% (521)
55.3% (47)
Away
45.5% (516)
34.0% (47)
By Period
Nelson
Jarnkrok
P1
45.9%
33.3%
P2
48.0%
50.0%
P3
48.0%
48.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
44.7%