Scouting Report
Calle Jarnkrok holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Jarnkrok shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Jarnkrok 49.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Jarnkrok
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
0
1
Nelson
Jarnkrok
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
0
4
Nelson
Jarnkrok
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Jarnkrok
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
50.7% (742)
-7.7%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
62.1% (29)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
40.3% (144)
+4.0%
On even strength, Jarnkrok has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarnkrok shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Jarnkrok is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jarnkrok
Home
41.9% (391)
52.4% (489)
Away
45.5% (400)
46.0% (426)
By Period
Nelson
Jarnkrok
P1
47.1%
51.9%
P2
43.0%
50.3%
P3
40.9%
46.4%
OT
63.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
43.6%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |