Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Coyle 50.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 58.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Coyle
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
52.3% (811)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
44.3% (61)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
44.8% (181)
-1.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
52.3% (621)
49.0% (537)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.1% (516)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
48.4%
48.7%
P2
53.5%
49.6%
P3
50.3%
53.1%
OT
41.2%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |