Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Coyle 48.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 85.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nelson
Coyle
Last 8: Nelson 5-3 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Coyle
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
2
Nelson
Coyle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Coyle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
49.5% (576)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
54.2% (48)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.4% (145)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
52.5% (590)
47.4% (409)
Away
51.7% (619)
50.0% (360)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
50.5%
50.8%
P2
54.4%
46.0%
P3
51.4%
48.4%
OT
47.4%
64.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |