Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.8%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Coyle 48.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 39-36 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 56.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 51.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
36
(75 meetings)
39
36
Nelson
Coyle
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
12
10
Nelson
Coyle
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
9
13
Nelson
Coyle
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
13
Nelson
Coyle
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.4% (7,856)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.0% (792)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
43.6% (1,090)
+0.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.8% (4,835)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.9% (4,903)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
48.7%
49.4%
P2
48.5%
48.3%
P3
47.7%
48.8%
OT
45.6%
49.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 15:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |