Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Coyle 52.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Nelson
Coyle
Last 8: Nelson 1-7 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Nelson
Coyle
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
1
Nelson
Coyle
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
4
Nelson
Coyle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
52.7% (849)
-5.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
66.7% (39)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.1% (131)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
48.9% (521)
53.3% (512)
Away
45.5% (516)
51.9% (507)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
45.9%
53.8%
P2
48.0%
47.8%
P3
48.0%
56.7%
OT
33.3%
38.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:30 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | OT | 04:17 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |