Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.1%). Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Coyle 49.2% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 60.6%
Neutral zone
Coyle 54.9%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Coyle
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
1
Nelson
Coyle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
3
Nelson
Coyle
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Coyle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
50.6% (921)
-0.7%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
51.0% (96)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
30.1% (83)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (759).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
49.8% (458)
51.8% (517)
Away
49.0% (506)
46.7% (583)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
50.1%
49.2%
P2
45.4%
52.8%
P3
52.7%
44.8%
OT
33.3%
54.5%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |