Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tierney on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tierney shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Tierney 48.7% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Nelson
Tierney
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Tierney
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Tierney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
0
1
Nelson
Tierney
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
0
1
Nelson
Tierney
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
1
2
Nelson
Tierney
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
49.2% (675)
-6.2%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
57.1% (21)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
43.8% (130)
+0.5%
On even strength, Tierney has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Tierney is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tierney
Home
41.9% (391)
50.7% (420)
Away
45.5% (400)
46.3% (406)
By Period
Nelson
Tierney
P1
47.1%
45.2%
P2
43.0%
50.0%
P3
40.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
43.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2016 | 3 | 02:28 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 1 | 18:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |