Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.1%). Look for Tierney on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Tierney 49.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Tierney leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.3%
Defensive zone
Tierney 63.9%
Neutral zone
Tierney 51.4%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Nelson
Tierney
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
15
(28 meetings)
13
15
Nelson
Tierney
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Tierney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Tierney
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
3
7
Nelson
Tierney
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Nelson
Tierney
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.3% (5,342)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.3% (342)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.6% (857)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Tierney is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (4,137).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tierney
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.6% (3,270)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.7% (3,271)
By Period
Nelson
Tierney
P1
48.7%
49.3%
P2
48.5%
47.7%
P3
47.7%
50.5%
OT
45.6%
47.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 06:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 17:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 1 | 17:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |