Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Tierney 47.9% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.3%
Defensive zone
Tierney 69.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.7%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Nelson
Tierney
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Tierney
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Tierney
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Tierney
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
46.6% (193)
+0.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
66.7% (3)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
47.5% (40)
-22.5%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Tierney is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tierney
Home
48.9% (521)
47.9% (121)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.1% (115)
By Period
Nelson
Tierney
P1
45.9%
44.1%
P2
48.0%
50.0%
P3
48.0%
46.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |