Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.7%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Tierney 49.8% (-0.3%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.8%
Defensive zone
Tierney 64.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Nelson
Tierney
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
50.4% (454)
-0.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
48.3% (58)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
36.8% (19)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Tierney is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tierney
Home
49.8% (458)
53.3% (289)
Away
49.0% (506)
45.5% (242)
By Period
Nelson
Tierney
P1
50.1%
50.9%
P2
45.4%
46.7%
P3
52.7%
52.1%
Final 5 min
47.1%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%