Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Dvorak 56.0% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 69.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Dvorak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
55.7% (714)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
61.1% (131)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
57.4% (122)
-28.8%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (553).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
49.8% (458)
59.0% (432)
Away
49.0% (506)
54.8% (535)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
50.1%
58.7%
P2
45.4%
53.9%
P3
52.7%
57.2%
OT
33.3%
70.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:25 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |