Brock Nelson vs Christian Dvorak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dvorak 53.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 35-33 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 53.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
35
(68 meetings)
33
35
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
11
Nelson
Dvorak
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
9
10
Nelson
Dvorak
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
10
14
Nelson
Dvorak
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.0% (6,743)
-5.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.7% (1,005)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
51.0% (887)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,559).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.7% (4,115)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.7% (4,520)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
48.7%
54.5%
P2
48.5%
51.8%
P3
47.7%
53.0%
OT
45.6%
56.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 00:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |