Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Dvorak 55.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 63.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
0
3
Nelson
Dvorak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Dvorak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
56.4% (857)
-5.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
69.0% (29)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
50.6% (174)
+1.3%
On power play, Dvorak has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
52.5% (590)
55.1% (501)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.4% (559)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
50.5%
55.8%
P2
54.4%
52.5%
P3
51.4%
58.2%
OT
47.4%
63.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 00:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |