Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dvorak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Dvorak 56.0% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Nelson
Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
0
2
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
0
1
Nelson
Dvorak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
57.0% (291)
-10.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
83.3% (18)
-48.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.0% (32)
-19.6%
On power play, Dvorak has a +48.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
48.7% (419)
58.3% (151)
Away
41.3% (368)
57.4% (190)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
44.6%
56.7%
P2
47.3%
56.7%
P3
43.0%
59.6%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
61.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |