Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Schwindt on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schwindt shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Schwindt 50.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 57.9%
Defensive zone
Schwindt 52.5%
Neutral zone
Schwindt 53.7%
Result
Cole Schwindt favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Nelson
Schwindt
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Schwindt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
1
2
Nelson
Schwindt
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schwindt
0
1
Nelson
Schwindt
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schwindt
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
49.8% (209)
+1.5%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.0% (2)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
71.4% (7)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Schwindt has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwindt shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Schwindt is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (156).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schwindt
Home
52.5% (590)
47.2% (123)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.7% (95)
By Period
Nelson
Schwindt
P1
50.5%
50.8%
P2
54.4%
51.2%
P3
51.4%
49.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Schwindt
44.0%▼
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |