Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 48.6%). Look for Schwindt on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schwindt shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Schwindt 48.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 51.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.0%
Result
Cole Schwindt favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Nelson
Schwindt
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Schwindt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
1
2
Nelson
Schwindt
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schwindt
0
1
Nelson
Schwindt
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schwindt
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
48.1% (337)
-0.3%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
75.0% (4)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
53.3% (15)
-9.8%
On power play, Schwindt has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwindt shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Schwindt is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schwindt
Home
49.8% (5,696)
44.6% (186)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
52.9% (170)
By Period
Nelson
Schwindt
P1
48.6%
51.5%
P2
48.4%
49.6%
P3
47.4%
45.2%
Final 5 min
47.4%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Schwindt
44.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |