Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Sillinger 45.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Nelson
Sillinger
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
10
(25 meetings)
15
10
Nelson
Sillinger
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Sillinger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Sillinger
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
3
Nelson
Sillinger
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sillinger
1
5
Nelson
Sillinger
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sillinger
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.1% (2,801)
+1.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.0% (180)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
36.9% (225)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sillinger shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Sillinger is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,097).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sillinger
Home
50.0% (5,845)
46.5% (1,620)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.8% (1,586)
By Period
Nelson
Sillinger
P1
48.7%
45.6%
P2
48.5%
45.5%
P3
47.7%
45.8%
OT
45.6%
47.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 07:53 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 15:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |