Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Sillinger 45.0% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Nelson
Sillinger
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Sillinger
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Sillinger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Sillinger
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Sillinger
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sillinger
0
1
Nelson
Sillinger
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sillinger
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
44.6% (639)
+2.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
54.3% (35)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
18.2% (22)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sillinger shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Sillinger is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sillinger
Home
48.9% (521)
45.5% (365)
Away
45.5% (516)
42.9% (331)
By Period
Nelson
Sillinger
P1
45.9%
42.5%
P2
48.0%
43.9%
P3
48.0%
46.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |