Scouting Report
Cole Sillinger holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sillinger on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sillinger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Sillinger 46.6% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.5%
Defensive zone
Sillinger 52.6%
Neutral zone
Sillinger 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Nelson
Sillinger
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Sillinger
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Sillinger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Sillinger
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sillinger
1
2
Nelson
Sillinger
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Sillinger
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sillinger
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.4% (834)
-1.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
44.3% (61)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
36.4% (77)
-6.0%
On power play, Sillinger has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sillinger shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Sillinger is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sillinger
Home
48.7% (419)
45.9% (488)
Away
41.3% (368)
46.7% (484)
By Period
Nelson
Sillinger
P1
44.6%
45.0%
P2
47.3%
44.5%
P3
43.0%
49.5%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 07:53 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 15:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |