Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Bedard 39.8% (+13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 94.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Nelson
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nelson
Bedard
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bedard
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Bedard
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bedard
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
38.0% (618)
+13.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
38.7% (31)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
57.1% (7)
-5.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bedard
Home
52.5% (590)
40.5% (316)
Away
51.7% (619)
36.2% (340)
By Period
Nelson
Bedard
P1
50.5%
37.2%
P2
54.4%
36.9%
P3
51.4%
40.7%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |