Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Bedard 46.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Nelson
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Bedard
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Bedard
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
0
1
Nelson
Bedard
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Bedard
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
44.2% (450)
+6.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
70.0% (30)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
53.8% (13)
-10.4%
On power play, Bedard has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bedard
Home
52.3% (621)
50.7% (223)
Away
48.9% (618)
42.2% (270)
By Period
Nelson
Bedard
P1
48.4%
40.8%
P2
53.5%
48.2%
P3
50.3%
48.0%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.8%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |