Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Bedard 41.3% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 90.6%
90.6%
9.4%
Nelson
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Nelson
Bedard
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Bedard
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Bedard
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Bedard
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
40.1% (1,580)
+7.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.9% (77)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.0% (24)
-6.2%
On even strength, Nelson has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bedard
Home
50.0% (5,845)
43.3% (785)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
38.5% (896)
By Period
Nelson
Bedard
P1
48.7%
39.0%
P2
48.5%
40.7%
P3
47.7%
42.6%
OT
45.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |