Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Ryan 55.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 16-10 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Nelson
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
16
(26 meetings)
10
16
Nelson
Ryan
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
4
Nelson
Ryan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
4
Nelson
Ryan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
8
Nelson
Ryan
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
56.6% (4,102)
-8.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.2% (342)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.8% (649)
-4.0%
On even strength, Ryan has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ryan
Home
50.0% (5,845)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Nelson
Ryan
P1
48.7%
55.1%
P2
48.5%
54.7%
P3
47.7%
56.0%
OT
45.6%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:09 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 20, 2019 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2019 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 18, 2018 | 3 | 08:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:10 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:53 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 13, 2017 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |