Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Ryan 54.6% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 73.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Nelson
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Nelson
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
60.8% (263)
-14.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
100.0% (1)
-65.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
46.2% (145)
-15.8%
On power play, Ryan has a +65.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ryan
Home
48.7% (419)
56.7% (201)
Away
41.3% (368)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Nelson
Ryan
P1
44.6%
56.7%
P2
47.3%
56.8%
P3
43.0%
53.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |