Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Ryan 50.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 83.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Nelson
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
50.9% (344)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
75.0% (4)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
45.3% (86)
-20.3%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ryan
Home
48.9% (521)
53.7% (214)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.4% (220)
By Period
Nelson
Ryan
P1
45.9%
45.0%
P2
48.0%
50.0%
P3
48.0%
54.6%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |