Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Ryan 57.4% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Nelson
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Nelson
Ryan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Nelson
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
61.4% (220)
-10.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
100.0% (1)
-41.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
51.7% (29)
+0.2%
On power play, Ryan has a +41.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ryan
Home
52.5% (590)
64.2% (137)
Away
51.7% (619)
55.8% (113)
By Period
Nelson
Ryan
P1
50.5%
58.9%
P2
54.4%
62.8%
P3
51.4%
59.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:09 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |