Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Toninato 44.9% (+7.0%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Toninato 67.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.9%
Result
Dominic Toninato favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Nelson
Toninato
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
43.5% (184)
+6.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
50.0% (4)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
29.4% (17)
-0.8%
On even strength, Nelson has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
49.8% (458)
45.6% (114)
Away
49.0% (506)
38.5% (91)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
50.1%
37.3%
P2
45.4%
41.7%
P3
52.7%
48.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
42.4%