Scouting Report
Dominic Toninato holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Toninato 51.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Nelson
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toninato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
54.8% (31)
-4.1%
On even strength, Toninato has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 65.0% vs left-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
52.3% (621)
71.4% (21)
Away
48.9% (618)
20.0% (10)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
48.4%
50.0%
P2
53.5%
71.4%
P3
50.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |