Brock Nelson vs Dominic Toninato
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Toninato 45.1% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 60.8%
Defensive zone
Toninato 65.4%
Neutral zone
Toninato 63.2%
Result
Dominic Toninato favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Nelson
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Toninato
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toninato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
4
Nelson
Toninato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Toninato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
45.5% (769)
+2.3%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
47.6% (21)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
26.7% (45)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (7,357).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
49.8% (5,696)
46.3% (404)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
42.9% (431)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
48.6%
40.7%
P2
48.4%
45.4%
P3
47.4%
47.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Toninato
42.0%▼
46.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:29 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |