Brock Nelson vs Dominic Toninato
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Toninato 45.4% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 57.3%
Defensive zone
Toninato 66.2%
Neutral zone
Toninato 61.4%
Result
Dominic Toninato favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Nelson
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Toninato
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Toninato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
4
Nelson
Toninato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Toninato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.9% (778)
+2.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
47.6% (21)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
26.7% (45)
+17.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.0% (413)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
42.9% (431)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
48.7%
40.8%
P2
48.5%
46.3%
P3
47.7%
47.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:29 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |