Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Cozens 48.4% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.9%
Defensive zone
Cozens 60.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.5%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Cozens
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Cozens
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Cozens
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Nelson
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.4% (859)
-2.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
49.5% (186)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
39.5% (129)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
48.9% (521)
49.0% (600)
Away
45.5% (516)
47.6% (574)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
45.9%
46.5%
P2
48.0%
52.9%
P3
48.0%
45.2%
OT
33.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |