Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (55% H2H, 20 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Cozens 48.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 24-21 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
21
(45 meetings)
24
21
Nelson
Cozens
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Nelson
Cozens
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
9
Nelson
Cozens
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
5
Nelson
Cozens
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.9% (4,075)
-1.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.4% (714)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.0% (439)
+2.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,779).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.2% (2,677)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.6% (2,551)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
47.7%
P3
47.7%
48.8%
OT
45.6%
34.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |