Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Cozens 52.9% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 67.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.0%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.9%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Nelson
Cozens
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
4
Nelson
Cozens
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Cozens
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Cozens
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
52.6% (606)
-1.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
58.5% (94)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
33.3% (6)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
52.3% (621)
54.1% (375)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.3% (331)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
48.4%
55.8%
P2
53.5%
50.6%
P3
50.3%
53.7%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |