Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Cozens 50.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nelson
Cozens
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Cozens
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Cozens
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Nelson
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.4% (891)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.5% (184)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
42.4% (85)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
52.5% (590)
49.5% (638)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.9% (522)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
50.5%
51.9%
P2
54.4%
46.4%
P3
51.4%
54.2%
OT
47.4%
16.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 11:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |