Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Rodrigues 49.6% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 51.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Nelson
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
54.4% (180)
-7.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
32.0% (25)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
36.1% (36)
-11.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Rodrigues is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rodrigues
Home
48.9% (521)
47.9% (119)
Away
45.5% (516)
50.8% (122)
By Period
Nelson
Rodrigues
P1
45.9%
53.8%
P2
48.0%
51.9%
P3
48.0%
43.2%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | OT | 03:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |