Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Rodrigues 47.3% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Nelson
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
47.9% (637)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
47.9% (71)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
37.3% (67)
+6.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rodrigues
Home
52.3% (621)
48.3% (429)
Away
48.9% (618)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Nelson
Rodrigues
P1
48.4%
48.3%
P2
53.5%
46.9%
P3
50.3%
45.6%
OT
41.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |