Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.3% vs 44.6%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuznetsov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Kuznetsov 45.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 64.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
1
Nelson
Kuznetsov
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
43.9% (613)
+0.0%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
50.7% (67)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
100.0% (1)
-58.6%
On penalty kill, Kuznetsov has a +58.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Home
42.9% (406)
43.3% (356)
Away
45.8% (393)
46.2% (325)
By Period
Nelson
Kuznetsov
P1
44.1%
45.8%
P2
47.2%
47.3%
P3
42.2%
41.6%
OT
30.8%
14.3%
Final 5 min
39.9%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2015 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |