Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.5%). Look for Kuznetsov on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Kuznetsov 47.7% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Kuznetsov leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 51.2%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 54.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.2%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
0
4
Nelson
Kuznetsov
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kuznetsov
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
47.7% (927)
-0.8%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
53.5% (71)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
39.4% (71)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Kuznetsov has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Home
48.9% (521)
45.9% (534)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.2% (535)
By Period
Nelson
Kuznetsov
P1
45.9%
44.8%
P2
48.0%
52.1%
P3
48.0%
44.5%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |