Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.0%). Look for Kuznetsov on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuznetsov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kuznetsov 45.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 55.0%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 54.3%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 53.5%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
0
1
Nelson
Kuznetsov
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
1
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.4% (613)
+1.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
58.8% (68)
-24.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
36.4% (66)
-6.0%
On power play, Kuznetsov has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Home
48.7% (419)
48.6% (370)
Away
41.3% (368)
41.4% (377)
By Period
Nelson
Kuznetsov
P1
44.6%
44.3%
P2
47.3%
49.6%
P3
43.0%
41.4%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
39.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |