Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 47.8%). Look for Kuznetsov on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs Kuznetsov 47.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 52.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 51.4%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
1
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kuznetsov
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Kuznetsov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
47.7% (1,028)
+1.9%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
50.0% (94)
-29.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
40.0% (15)
+12.9%
On power play, Kuznetsov has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Nelson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (758).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Home
52.9% (210)
49.8% (592)
Away
42.1% (178)
45.5% (545)
By Period
Nelson
Kuznetsov
P1
43.9%
49.0%
P2
48.1%
49.3%
P3
53.1%
45.3%
OT
40.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
42.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.9%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 12:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Feb 18, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 7, 2016 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |