Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuznetsov on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Kuznetsov 44.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 72.0%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 64.2%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 71.8%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
1
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
0
2
Nelson
Kuznetsov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
44.4% (980)
+3.6%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
38.7% (31)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
42.9% (7)
-2.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Kuznetsov is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (673).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuznetsov
Home
51.1% (399)
46.4% (491)
Away
45.6% (406)
42.1% (527)
By Period
Nelson
Kuznetsov
P1
51.8%
44.8%
P2
47.5%
44.6%
P3
46.5%
44.0%
OT
20.0%
23.1%
Final 5 min
51.1%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 11, 2017 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |