Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Lapierre 42.7% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 55.0%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 54.1%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 55.3%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Nelson
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
0
1
Nelson
Lapierre
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
39.9% (248)
+10.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
40.0% (5)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
0.0% (1)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Lapierre is 35.1% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lapierre
Home
52.3% (621)
44.2% (138)
Away
48.9% (618)
34.5% (116)
By Period
Nelson
Lapierre
P1
48.4%
54.2%
P2
53.5%
39.1%
P3
50.3%
25.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |