Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Lapierre shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Lapierre 40.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Nelson
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Lapierre
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Lapierre
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Lapierre
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lapierre
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
38.2% (275)
+7.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
0.0% (5)
+34.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Lapierre is 36.6% vs left-shot opponents (191).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lapierre
Home
48.7% (419)
37.3% (153)
Away
41.3% (368)
37.8% (127)
By Period
Nelson
Lapierre
P1
44.6%
46.1%
P2
47.3%
38.1%
P3
43.0%
25.9%
Final 5 min
39.4%
30.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
37.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |