Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hughes 37.4% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 93.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 92.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Nelson
Hughes
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
3
Nelson
Hughes
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Hughes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
1
Nelson
Hughes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
35.7% (569)
+12.8%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
33.3% (36)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
16.7% (6)
+40.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +40.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 31.1% vs left-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
55.0% (362)
37.8% (333)
Away
43.5% (345)
32.4% (278)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
49.3%
38.8%
P2
53.6%
28.3%
P3
46.0%
38.6%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
31.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 15:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 18:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:35 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |