Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Hughes 37.9% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
34.9% (444)
+12.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
50.0% (14)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
33.3% (6)
-8.3%
On even strength, Nelson has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
48.9% (521)
37.4% (235)
Away
45.5% (516)
33.2% (229)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
45.9%
37.1%
P2
48.0%
33.7%
P3
48.0%
34.8%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
32.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |