Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Hughes 39.8% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Hughes
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
2
Nelson
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Hughes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
3
Nelson
Hughes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
36.8% (266)
+13.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
14.3% (7)
+44.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
33.3% (6)
+10.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +44.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
52.3% (621)
35.1% (148)
Away
48.9% (618)
37.4% (131)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
48.4%
43.0%
P2
53.5%
28.7%
P3
50.3%
35.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |