Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Hughes 39.2% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 56.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
1
Nelson
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
1
Nelson
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
37.9% (623)
+13.4%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
33.3% (33)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
36.4% (11)
+15.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
52.5% (590)
36.6% (314)
Away
51.7% (619)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
50.5%
36.4%
P2
54.4%
35.6%
P3
51.4%
41.8%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |