Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hughes 38.0% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
34.5% (342)
+15.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
42.9% (7)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
25.0% (4)
+3.6%
On even strength, Nelson has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
49.8% (458)
32.6% (187)
Away
49.0% (506)
36.7% (166)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
50.1%
33.9%
P2
45.4%
34.2%
P3
52.7%
36.5%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
29.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 03:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |