Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs McBain 50.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 57.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 55.2%
Neutral zone
McBain 57.6%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
52.6% (504)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
50.0% (12)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
33.3% (42)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
50.4% (472)
51.8% (251)
Away
48.6% (477)
50.5% (307)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
47.2%
50.9%
P2
53.4%
53.9%
P3
47.8%
48.1%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |